On fading reasons

There's plenty to catch up on in Canadian politics from the past week, and I'll try to cover the biggest news over the next couple of days. But let's start with one polling tidbit that looks even more important than the NDP's improving support totals:

Respondents were asked which party they voted for in the May 2 federal election, and those who voted were asked their main reasons for their party choice (on an unprompted question which allowed any response). A majority of Conservative voters (54%) say they liked the party’s performance in government or the party’s philosophy or promises, followed by the party leader (Mr. Harper, 12%) and liking their local candidate (10%). Similarly, Bloc Quebecois voters also focus on that party’s philosophy (66%) as the main reason for their support.

Reasons for supporting the other two parties show a rather different profile. New Democrat voters are divided in their reasons between liking that party’s philosophy (34%) and a desire for change (28%). Given the considerable media attention paid to the importance of Mr. Layton, fewer New Democrat voters than expected (10%) mention him as their reason to vote for the party. Liberal voters emphasize stopping the Conservatives (33%) and this party’s philosophy or promises (27%) as their main reasons, with a significant number mentioning their local candidate (20%).

Comparing the three numbers, one gets a sense as to just how fragile the Libs' continued support figures to be (which also seems to be confirmed by later polls). The leading reason for Lib votes is one which might foreseeably evaporate completely if the NDP is able to make itself the leading voice opposing Harper in the lead up to the next federal election campaign. And another chunk of the Libs' support - adding up with the "stop Harper" factor to total more than half of the already-reduced vote share for the party - is based on local candidates rather than anything to do with the national party, presumably signalling votes which might also switch easily if the NDP can parlay its increased strength into higher-profile candidates.

(Granted, the Libs also benefited from another factor not mentioned in the commentary: "longtime party supporter", which accounted for 9% of Lib support compared to 3% for the other national parties. But I doubt that number offers much solace.)

In contrast, the NDP's most important factors are ones which only figure to be strengthened as the party both raises the profile of its own policy priorities, and makes the case for change in the next election. Which means that there's plenty of reason for optimism that 2015 will see the strongest possible anti-Harper coalition uniting in the NDP's camp.