Post-Election Questions: The Bloc

Susan Delacourt's big question about the Libs looks to apply even more strongly to the other party which saw its caucus decimated by the recent federal election. And that leads to my question as to where the Bloc goes from here:

Will sovereigntists see any value in rebuilding the Bloc as a federal party?

At the outset, I'll note that I don't doubt for a second that given enough effort, the Bloc can recover some of its presence in the House of Commons in future elections.

For all the spin about how the end of per-vote financing would be catastrophic for the Bloc, I don't see much indication that it couldn't fund-raise enough to keep going if it perceived the need to do so. And the PQ's election machine doesn't figure to stop being a substantial force anytime soon - meaning that there's a base of volunteers and supporters ready to be tapped into at any time.

But it remains to be seen whether those with the ability to rebuild the Bloc will see the task as anywhere close to a top priority.

After all, the downside of accessing the PQ's base of donors and volunteers is that it might sap energy which is seen as better applied on the provincial scene. And while the Bloc's normal contingent of dozens of MPs and seemingly guaranteed electoral victories has developed a cycle of support based on the self-interest of actual and prospective MPs, the current group of four members lacking party status nearly eliminates that incentive to maintain a federal party apparatus.

Perhaps more importantly, though, the combination of an anticipated PQ government in Quebec and a Harper government whose attempt to sell access for votes was thoroughly repudiated could make for the most combative relationship we've seen between Quebec and the federal government in ages. And that raises the possibility that the PQ's musings about a sovereignty referendum in the not-so-distant future might well come to pass.

That means that the Bloc's electoral wipeout offers an opportunity for serious evaluation of the long-discussed theory that its presence in Ottawa may only have diluted the sovereigntist movement by offering a less drastic outlet for the province's frustrations. And if the Bloc doesn't resurface in future elections, much of the reason figures to be that its supporters have decided their effort is best applied elsewhere.