Thursday, April 21, 2011

A growing movement

In case anybody was under the misapprehension that the NDP's growth was limited to Quebec, we now have our first poll showing the NDP alone in second place across Canada - in both voting intentions and seat projections:
The NDP has made its largest gains in Quebec, with an astonishing surge past the Bloc Quebecois in decided and leaning voter support, but the party has also moved up in British Columbia, and Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where a rise in support can turn into new House of Commons seats for the party.
...
Nationally, the survey gave the Conservative Party support from 36 per cent of decided and leaning voters, 25 per cent for the NDP, 23 per cent for the Liberal party, and six per cent each for the Green Party and the Bloc Québécois. A separate Forum Research analysis, based partly on ridings won and lost in the 2008 election, suggest the survey results would give the Conservatives 149 of the 308 Commons seats if an election were held today, with 71 seats for the NDP, 64 for the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois would have 24 seats.
In other words, all previous strategic-voting scaremongering is now becoming as wrong in fact as it is in principle - both because the NDP is finding itself in the strongest position to challenge the Cons across the country, and because it may have a stronger baseline of expected seats to build from. And the prospects for a major change for the better in Ottawa are growing by the day.

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