Monday, February 14, 2011

Well said

Alice chimes in with the definitive post on how to handle between-election polling:
(S)top reading "the polls", stop obsessing about "the polls", and for goodness sake stop writing that "the polls say this will happen or that will happen", because they don't say any such thing. And take amateur seat predictions having a zero-general-election track record with as big a boulder of salt as Joan Bryden's sources advise taking the polls. "The polls" didn't predict the Conservatives would win Montmagny–l'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup, or that the Liberals would win Winnipeg North either. Campaigns matter, and outsiders don't know what ridings political parties are going to target or send resources to yet, though we can certainly draw some conclusions now (and no, it's not based exclusively on whether they were "close" last time or not either).

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