The price of stubbornness

The Cons still don't seem to have figured out that the only way to make any part of the census furor go away as an issue is to actually reverse their decision to gut it. So let's note how rare it is for a pollster called in to divine the latest public opinion trends to lend an opinion and prediction as a party directly affected by policy choices:

Critics say the government's sudden decision to mitigate some of the damage from the census furor may have been just a first step in an attempt to reverse the opinion poll trends. However, they also say reinstatement of questions about use of the English and French languages at home into the mandatory short form of the census, and the accompanying announcement it plans legislation to eliminate jail as a potential penalty for failure to fill out the questionnaire, will not solve the Prime Minister's problem on that issue.

"This debate is not going to go away," said Mr. Woolstencroft, whose own firm, like all other major polling firms in Canada, has depended on the mandatory long form of the census every five years as a grounding board to confirm the reliability of its own survey findings.

Though Industry Minister Tony Clement (Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ont.) seized on a response from the National Statistics Council welcoming the government decision to include language questions in the short form, in the face of Federal Court action by a national lobby group advocating minority francophone rights, the statement released by the council's chair also contained indications the fight is not over. Council chairman Ian McKinnon pointed out Mr. Clement had failed to consult with the council, which the government itself appointed as an advisory group for Mr. Clement on issues relating to Statistics Canada. He also made it clear the council wants the government to reinstate the mandatory longer questionnaire as part of the survey.

"A voluntary survey will not be able to fulfill the fundamental needs of a national statistical system," said Mr. McKinnon, adding the $30-million price tag to implement the expanded voluntary form is substantial "and will yield less accurate or useful information."

The head of the Statistical Society of Canada also said Mr. Clement's tweaks—though significant—are not enough to repair the damage.

"Far from it," said society president Don McLeish.

"It's not exactly a conversion on the road to Damascus, it's maybe the first 100 metres down the road to Damascus. It's essentially a tacit admission that the voluntary national housing survey wouldn't provide the kind of information required by the Official Languages Act and wouldn't stand up in court."