On lessons learned

The UK's election yesterday obviously has fallen short of the shift in the balance of party power that some commentators may have anticipated. But the Liberal Democrats' failure to gain any ground serves primarily as an example of how not to capitalize on an opening to pursue real systemic change, rather than a statement that it's futile to try.

At the outset, it's worth noting that the Lib Dems' momentary strength was itself based in part on the actions of its opponents. With both Labour and the Conservatives spending much of the campaign anticipating the possibility of a minority government where the Libs Dems' support could prove crucial, the two historical governing parties managed to turn "I agree with Nick" into the catchphrase of the UK's first-ever leaders' debate. And it's not surprising that with all three leaders effectively boosting the Lib Dems and their leader, public opinion followed suit - though even that represented only a shift of a few points from the 2005 reults.

But while the Lib Dems were happy to ride the wave of hype coming out of the debate, there doesn't seem to be any indication that their political machine had much of a strategy even to maintain their new level of public support, let alone to translate it into the improvements in their seat count. Which means that when the other parties inevitably shifted their message to cut into the Lib Dems' momentum, the Lib Dems ended up right back where they started - except with the burden of having fallen short of temporarily heightened expectations.

Now, the Lib Dems' difficulties are hardly unusual for a third party seeking to rise up to the level of a historical two-party race. And that's probably worth keeping in mind when we'd otherwise be tempted to point to the Lib Dems, or the ADQ, or any other third-party gains as evidence of a public appetite to overturn a longstanding two-party structure.

But while there are plenty of examples of how a momentary increase in third-party support based on a popular leader and dissatisfaction with the two main parties can prove fleeting, that's not the end of the story.

Instead, it's when a third party is able to back up those factors with a sound base of principled support and effective party-level planning that it's actually possible to produce lasting change in party positioning - with the Nova Scotia NDP serving as a prime recent example of how the right conditions can come together. And the fact that the federal NDP has developed an effective inoculation strategy over the past few elections to maintain its support against the Libs' predictable attacks should signal that it's also on the right track.

Ultimately, then, the lesson which any party should draw from the Lib Dems' failings is to keep focusing on those fundamentals which it can largely control, rather than banking on bubbles of support which are sure to burst sooner or later. And hopefully the reminder should serve to ensure a better result in Canada's next election than seems to have arisen in the UK.