Saturday, April 25, 2009

Leadership 2009 - Facebook Support Update

It's been less than two weeks since I last updated the Facebook support standings for the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race. But there are a couple of developments since then that bear highlighting.

Let's start off with the standings now, along with where they were as of April 12:
Dwain Lingenfelter - 639 fans (602)
Ryan Meili - 404 supporters (346)
Yens Pedersen Campaign - 227 members (225)
Deb Higgins for Sask NDP Leader - 96 members (71 supporters for Higgins' politician page)

The first point worth noting is the continued growth in Meili's camp, as his group's total has increased by roughly as much as those of the other contenders combined. In contrast, Lingenfelter's lead seems to be narrowing, while Pedersen's support looks to be relatively stagnant (and indeed his group has apparently lost members over the last few days).

Meanwhile, Higgins' data is worth a closer look. Her leadership group doesn't appear to be a new one, as the wall posts date back to her entry into the race. Instead, it seems to have been opened up in the meantime where it didn't show up on public searches before - meaning that she may have had more Facebook support all along than had previously been visible, and in any event isn't as far behind the pack now as seemed to be the case before.

Perhaps more important, though, is one of the names who shows up in Higgins' group: Larry Hubich, the president of the Saskatchewan Federation of Labour and probably the most visible labour leader in the province.

Remember that to date, the labour movement's public involvement in the leadership race has been in favour of Lingenfelter, with several endorsements and a substantial amount of money flowing his way. Which was always a somewhat surprising outcome, given Higgins' experience with the labour file.

Now, there's at least some hint that Higgins is adding high-profile labour support to her existing bases. And while it's too late to actually work on recruiting more union members to the party fold for the race, it wouldn't be at all surprising if a push from organized labour could have an effect in persuading those who did sign up for the party.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether Hubich will make a public endorsement rather than simply lending his support to the Facebook group. And there's probably some question as to how much Hubich personally can influence the union locals who would be more likely to contribute money and volunteers directly.

But even if Hubich does little more than support Higgins in principle, that still sends a signal that organized labour doesn't have to play it safe and stay behind Link. And that can only figure to make the race more interesting going forward.

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