Sunday, September 14, 2008

Leading the pack

CanWest's coverage of the latest Canadian leadership polling focuses primarily on the fact that Stephen Harper managed to fare the worst of the lot over the past week despite the Cons' efforts to smooth out his rough edges. But it's worth noting as well that the other campaign centred on leadership fared far better, as Jack Layton managed to post both the highest level of improvements and lowest level of declines in public perception out of all the party leaders:
The Ipsos Reid poll, conducted for Canwest News Service and Global News between Sept. 9 and 11, shows Canadians' impressions of the leaders slipped instead of strengthened, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper had the worst week of them all.

Thirty-six per cent said their impression of Harper had "worsened" since the start of the campaign on Sept. 7, compared with 32 per cent for his main opponent, Liberal Leader Stephane Dion.

Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe also failed to impress -- 23 per cent said they had a worse opinion of him--and 15 per cent said New Democratic Party Leader Jack Layton fell in their eyes...

While Harper and the other leaders failed to gain support among some voters, not all was lost in the first week of the campaign, the poll indicated. Fifteen per cent said their impressions of Harper and Layton improved, 13 per cent for Dion and 10 per cent for Duceppe.
Now, it makes sense that in the midst of a campaign where each party has had to deal with attacks from four different sides, it will be difficult for any party or leader to present enough of a positive vision to improve how Canadians see them. And the numbers bear that out for most of the leaders.

Harper ranks worst of the lot at -21 in comparing improvements to declines. And it's hard to take that as anything but a stunning indictment of the Cons' strategy in trying to centre their campaign around a plush-toy version of Deceivin' Stephen. Meanwhile, Dion at -19 and Duceppe at -13 (while presumably being seen by less voters) weren't much further ahead.

Against that backdrop, Layton alone among the leaders mentioned in the poll has managed to hold his ground in terms of public perceptions. And the fact that the NDP's focus on leadership has succeeded where the Cons' has failed should send a strong signal that Harper can indeed be beaten on the battleground of leadership - as long as Canadian progressives choose the right leader to rally behind.

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