Inroads and outroads

Politique Vert takes note of the Greens' problems in the Repentigny by-election (and perhaps more importantly with what looks like a cover-up of what may have happened). But with both the Greens and the Libs now sitting out the by-election, the end result in the riding could be tremendously positive both for the NDP in particular, and for those opposed to Harper's Cons generally.

Keep in mind that in the 2006 federal election, Repentigny was one of the ridings where a large number of disaffected Libs appear to have switched their votes to the Cons. This may conceivably have the Cons believing they can mount a by-election challenge to the Bloc, particularly with the Libs out of the picture entirely. But it also means that Repentigny's voters may provide answers for two key questions.

First, there's the question of how the Cons' term in office has affected their public perception in Quebec. This should be fairly easily answered by the Cons' absolute percentage: if they fail to add to their general election percentage of 18% (or better yet manage to lose absolute support) with no challenge from the Libs and with the Bloc having lost a popular MP, then there can be no doubt that the Cons will be in all the more trouble facing the voters when they don't have such advantages on their side.

Second, there's the relative position of the NDP and the Cons - which is where the battle may be particularly interesting. Obviously the Cons will start from a stronger position, with both a 10% lead from the last federal election and the ability to pour money into the riding to try to win votes. But if the NDP can narrow the Cons' advantage (or better yet overtake their total), then not only will the brakes be put on PMS' inroads into Quebec, but the NDP will also pull itself into the thick of the battle to represent Quebec federalists.

Of course, there's only so much that a single by-election can say about the strength of the parties involved. But for a government plainly in decline in Quebec and an opposition party looking to get a toehold, any momentum from Repentigny could have a huge effect on perceived momentum going into the next general election campaign. It only remains to be seen whether the NDP will be able to take advantage of the opportunity, and whether the Cons have any plan to stop their bleeding in Quebec.