On external causes

Michael Byers theorizes that foreign policy will prove to be Harper's downfall in the next federal election:

It is a basic tenet of Canadian political science that foreign policy doesn't matter in elections. In fact, it hasn't mattered since 1988 when Brian Mulroney used the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement to drive a wedge between his Progressive Conservatives, on the one side, and the Liberals and NDP on the other. Foreign policy issues are usually too complex, under-reported or distant in their implications to register with most Canadians.

Stephen Harper adheres to the view that foreign policy lacks electoral significance and, for this reason, feels safe following the Bush administration's lead. He made a lousy deal on softwood lumber, allowing U.S. forest companies to keep $1 billion in illegal gains. He agreed to share surveillance information from the Northwest Passage with the Pentagon without receiving recognition of Canada's sovereignty claim in return. He has moved towards participation in missile defence, taken sides in the Israel-Palestine conflict, and failed to protect Afghan detainees from torture. But how many people know this? And how many really care?

Still, three foreign policy issues could soon achieve unusual degrees of prominence. When the "new" Stephen Harper lets the mask slip on these issues, exposing his neo-conservatism, Canadians will notice -- and they likely will care.

I don't share Byers' view that Afghanistan is likely to be one of the defining issues of the next campaign - with the most recent vote in Parliament there doesn't seem to be much prospect of Canada's role ending or changing anytime soon. But there seems to be at least a reasonable chance that global warming will be kept in the news enough to grow in importance and take a bite out of the Cons' support. And if the U.S. does decide to provoke a war with Iran, that could prove to be a back-breaking blow for Harper's government whether or not it actually declares public support for such a war (since the opposition parties will be able to easily point out the danger of an even more pro-Bush policy if Harper were to win a majority).

Mind you, the last time an election was decided primarily on a foreign-policy issue, it was a split vote that allowed Mulroney to remain in power. And depending on who becomes the next Lib leader (and whether the Canadian public decides to forget about the Libs' woeful record on global warming), a similar split might at least dampen the effect of the key foreign-policy issues next time out.

But it does appear clear that factors bigger than the usual domestic issues may have a huge impact on the next federal election. And Harper's attempts to micromanage everything taking place within Canada aren't going to help him in the least when it comes to what's going on outside our borders.