Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Still growing, for now

StatsCan's latest economic data is out, and Canada's economy is again growing faster than anticipated by economists. And the peripheral data sounds equally promising:
The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the second quarter of the year, compared to 2.1% in the last quarter...

Growth in final domestic demand slowed to 0.7% in the second quarter, down from a very strong 1.5% jump in the first quarter. While the growth in final domestic demand was much stronger in the first quarter, much of it was satisfied through a surge in imports rather than domestic production, moderating the overall growth in GDP. The opposite was the case in the second quarter; even though final domestic demand slowed, a much greater share of this demand was satisfied through domestic production, resulting in an acceleration in GDP...

Personal expenditures grew 0.6% following a stellar performance in the first quarter. Strong demand for durable and semi-durable goods continued to drive output up in the retail trade (+1.1%) and wholesale trade sectors (+2.3%).

Some of the recent growth in personal expenditures has been spurred on by the growth in labour income. Labour income grew 1.5%, outpacing the growth of consumption for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2003.

In other words: Canadians are making more money than before, spending a good amount of it on Canadian-made goods, and also using more for purposes other than consumption (which would hopefully include added investment and paying down debt).

That's the good news. The bad news is that the Bank of Canada will predictably use the increased spending and general economic activity as added reason to put an end to the progress:
The report will reinforce the view that interest rates will rise next week. The Bank of Canada meets a week from today and is widely expected to raise rates for the first time in 11 months, by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent, in an effort to keep inflation in check.

The moral of the story: make good use of any raises and opportunities while they're there, as once again your central bank is going out of its way to make sure they don't last for long.

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