Sunday, August 07, 2005

No merging threat

According to the Globe and Mail, any talk of bank mergers is on hold until after the 2006 election:
After several false starts and much vacillation, Ottawa is expected to shelve plans to publish new guidelines for consolidation in the financial services sector until after the federal election next year, according to people familiar with the matter...

Finance Minister Ralph Goodale has dispatched numerous trial balloons to gauge the feelings of both opposition parties and the general public, but with the prospect of another tightly contested fight at the polls next year, Prime Minister Paul Martin is said to be unwilling to risk wading into such a contentious political issue.

While the Liberals have otherwise been careful to try to play to the NDP's voters, their strategy on this issue should offer a solid opening for the NDP.

The current situation makes it clear that mergers won't be dealt with in a minority parliament due to a lack of support from the left-leaning parties. (I'm not quite sure why the Cons would want to hold it up, but all the better if that's what they're doing.)

From here on in, the NDP gets a stronger position with voters who are leery about putting too much banking authority in too few hands. If a minority parliament is the only thing standing in the way of mergers, then a decent chunk of the centre-left (not to mention some less ideological populists) have added incentive not to permit a Liberal majority.

Granted, the issue isn't likely one that'll sway votes on its own. But it's one weak spot in the Liberals' left-wing armor, and a few of those could add up to help the Dippers.

Update: Good news. They're on it.

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