Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Cutting the brake lines

The Guardian points out that for all the climate change-related problems this year, the most important problems may just be beginning:
A vast expanse of western Sibera (sic) is undergoing an unprecedented thaw that could dramatically increase the rate of global warming, climate scientists warn today.

Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometres - the size of France and Germany combined - has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age.

The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.

So what's the effect of all this released methane?
Climate scientists yesterday reacted with alarm to the finding, and warned that predictions of future global temperatures would have to be revised upwards.

"When you start messing around with these natural systems, you can end up in situations where it's unstoppable. There are no brakes you can apply," said David Viner, a senior scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

The all-too-often-forgotten lesson is that even to the extent that climate change may also be part of a natural cycle, there's inevitably a connection between natural cycles and human activity. And by ignoring those connections this long, we've caused harms which can't be undone.

There are two possible responses to this sort of news - we can throw our hands up and figure that since we're doomed now anyway, we'd might as well continue on our current path. Or we can redouble our efforts to make sure that we don't reach the next tipping point. Unfortunately, it seems all too obvious which choice will ultimately be made.

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